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The Off Topic section is not meant for discussing Cookie Clicker.

when should I ascend?

I want to know when I should ascend for the first time

I have about four quintillion cookies and 157 prestige

I have 250 cursors 230 grandmas 200 farms and mines 160 factories 150 temples and banks 110 wizard towers 100 shipments and alcmey labs 60 portals 50 time machines 40 antimater condensers 30 prisms

I have about nine trillion cookies per second in 850 hours

43 percent achevements and upgrades

I don't know when to ascend for the first time

Any suggestions ?

Comments

  • adam_antichristadam_antichrist Posts: 299Member ✭✭✭
    edited November 2016
    You can ascend now, as you have enough prestige to buy the first permanent upgrade slot, plus a few of the cheaper boosts. Heavenly cookies is a must, and with the other 50 you can buy one of the biscuit boxes plus persistent memory and how to bake your dragon or if you prefer a 2nd box of bikkies. Check out the wiki page here on what those goodies will do for you.

    If you prefer you can wait a bit longer and earn more prestige so you can buy more of the cheaper boosts. But you'll get back to where you were in no time so if I was playing for the first time again I'd ascend now.

  • PJ_SCOTT_35PJ_SCOTT_35 Posts: 3Member
    Thanks for the help, I will ascend now :)
  • bob_32_116bob_32_116 Posts: 436Member ✭✭✭
    edited February 8
    I generated a formula to estimate the time remaining in the current run, which people might find useful. It's quite a complicated formula, and the algebra that went into deriving it was messier still, but anyone using a spreadsheet to record their progress need only type the formula in once, into one cell, and simply change the relevant numbers as the run progresses.

    Description:
    As I have said elsewhere, I think the best time to ascend is when the ratio current production over average production, which generally decreases with time, falls to equal the production boost that will occur from prestige points at the end of the run. The latter of course increases with time.

    I therefore generated a formula to calculate the current difference between these quantities. Then I took the time derivative of this. Dividing one by the other gives an estimate of the time for this difference to fall to zero.

    Assumptions:

    - Passive play is assumed, i.e. production is coming only from buildings and various upgrades.

    - Production is assumed to be constant, which is a good approximation near the end of the run.

    - Existing prestige level must be much higher than 1; therefore the formula is useless on the first run, and probably not very accurate on run 2, but should be fairly good on later runs. the formula is really designed for the "end game" which is when all the upgrades have been bought.

    Some notation:

    B = current prestige boost, i.e. the factor by which the prestige multiplier would increase if I ascended right now.

    R = ratio of current production to average production for this run

    P = current production (including wrinkler hoarding)

    Cp - cookies baked from previous runs

    C = cookies baked so far this run

    T = time duration of this run so far

    t = time from now till the end of the run

    Now to the formula:

    *** formula corrected Feb 06***

    t = (R^3-B^3)/[P/Cp + 3P^3*T^2/C^4 * (PT-C)]


    Be careful with the units. The game screen displays production in cookies per second, but T is displayed in hours and you probably want to see the remaining time expressed in hours as well. That means you need to convert T to seconds by multiplying by 3600, plug that into the formula, and then convert the resulting value for t to hours by dividing by 3600.

    I have only just put the formula into my spreadsheet, so its validity has not actually been tested yet. However it gives 14.2 hours remaining, on top of the 262 already passed, so the figure is believable.
    Post edited by bob_32_116 on
  • JezJez Posts: 64Member ✭✭
    It would be intersting to incorporate milk boost attained from forthcoming achievements too. For example, though I'm fairly certain I'm probably around the optimum ascension point now, I'm hanging on until I get the 100 decillion achievement - probably around another 400 hours.
  • bob_32_116bob_32_116 Posts: 436Member ✭✭✭
    edited February 4
    Jez said:

    It would be intersting to incorporate milk boost attained from forthcoming achievements too. For example, though I'm fairly certain I'm probably around the optimum ascension point now, I'm hanging on until I get the 100 decillion achievement - probably around another 400 hours.

    I have not taken any account of that. It's hard to see how I could. I guess the user would have to manually enter the number of prestige points required to get the upgrade, along with some number that specifies the benefit of the upgrade.

    A possible use for my formula is deciding whether the "best next buy" is in fact the best. A prism may represent the best value in terms of increased production vs cost; however if you are going to have to wait 24 hours to afford that prism, and you expect the run to end in 14 hours' time, you will never get the benefit from that prism, and it might be better to buy something smaller that you can afford now, to get at least a small production boost.

  • JezJez Posts: 64Member ✭✭
    Agreed. It would present significant challenges, trying to build in a 'milk increase due to forthcoming achievements' parameter. Perhaps one would need to treat the game as a continuum - incorporating ascensions into the mathematics - and calculate with an end goal in mind across multiple ascensions, e.g. a given CPS.
  • bob_32_116bob_32_116 Posts: 436Member ✭✭✭
    edited February 8
    I found some errors in the formula for hours remaining - now edited to fix. Would have significantly underestimated. My time remaining is now about 53 hours, rather than 14 hours.
    Post edited by bob_32_116 on
  • japanmanjapanman Posts: 463Member ✭✭✭
    I've got 52 prestige levels. Have things changed in this update too much? I was thinking of ascending at 100
    /
  • bob_32_116bob_32_116 Posts: 436Member ✭✭✭
    edited February 8
    I checked in first thing this morning; before doing anything in the game, estimated time remaining was given as 27.2 hours. I then popped the wrinklers and finally got wrinklerspawn, which effectively gives 5% boost in production. Estimated time remaining is now 59.6 hours.

    A nice illustration of how critically the best time to ascend depends on what upgrades you have.
  • BillaboBillabo Posts: 1,049Member, Friendly, Conversationalist ✭✭✭✭
    @japanman Yeah, 100 would be fine. I suggest waiting until 150 or 200, but IMO if it is starting to feel slow, go ahead and ascend so you get to the interesting part again for a while. Though if you haven't gone full grandmapocalypse by the time you are at 100, don't reset until you do, because you'll want the milk from the related achievements.
    Fire Emblem: Fates castle address
    08619-69569
    56318-03154
  • japanmanjapanman Posts: 463Member ✭✭✭
    Billabo said:

    @japanman Yeah, 100 would be fine. I suggest waiting until 150 or 200, but IMO if it is starting to feel slow, go ahead and ascend so you get to the interesting part again for a while. Though if you haven't gone full grandmapocalypse by the time you are at 100, don't reset until you do, because you'll want the milk from the related achievements.

    Okay, thanks.
    /
  • Camwood7Camwood7 Posts: 138Member, Wiener ✭✭✭
    I was told to wait it out to 200-300 levels. It's the longest, but it's also the most efficient. Anything beyond 300 is probably wasting your time, and anything beyond 500 is absolutely wasting your time.
    Literally dunk the points you'd give onto my other account, this one has zero value to me and will literally cease to be relevant come May: @Cookiewoodstock

    Hi, I'm Barry Scott. Bang, and the signature is gone.
  • bob_32_116bob_32_116 Posts: 436Member ✭✭✭
    I'm starting to think I shall have to do "dummy runs" - runs that only last a few seconds before ascending again - if I ever want to get the 100 ascension achievement. I am only on run 20, so in the normal course of events it will take months before I reach 100 ascensions, unless I hasten the process.

    Has anyone else done this? Ascending with no prestige give no increase in production, but as far as I can see it does not cost anything either, except for the time taken to ascend and reincarnate repeatedly, time during which no production can take place. It seems slightly ridiculous that I may at some point find myself doing 80 dummy runs, simply to get that particular achievement. It will also quickly become tiresome.
  • BillaboBillabo Posts: 1,049Member, Friendly, Conversationalist ✭✭✭✭
    edited February 11
    Ascending with no prestige does not count toward that achievement. @Gouchnox wrote a guide for getting that achievement. Here's the link: http://forum.dashnet.org/discussion/13742/how-to-get-reincarnation-really-easily-tutorial
    Fire Emblem: Fates castle address
    08619-69569
    56318-03154
  • bob_32_116bob_32_116 Posts: 436Member ✭✭✭
    Billabo said:

    Ascending with no prestige does not count toward that achievement. @Gouchnox wrote a guide for getting that achievement. Here's the link: http://forum.dashnet.org/discussion/13742/how-to-get-reincarnation-really-easily-tutorial

    A most useful tutorial.

    At this stage of the game, my production is such that it will take me hardly any time at all to get that first HC, but thanks anyway for the warning.

  • adam_antichristadam_antichrist Posts: 299Member ✭✭✭
    I got it by playing long enough to earn 1 prestige, then ascending again, and doing this a few times whenever I ascended until I got bored and played it out properly. It still took a couple of months total to get the achievement.

  • bob_32_116bob_32_116 Posts: 436Member ✭✭✭
    edited February 23
    Earlier in this thread I presented a formula to estimate time remaining in the run. The method was based on the rate of change of R and B, R being the ratio of current to average production, and B being the boost fromprestige.

    Having commenced a new run since then, it's become clear that his formula is highly inaccurate in the early stages of a run, even I am already approachingthe maximum number of buildings, and is really only valid near the end of the run. This is because R falls much more rapidly in the early stages of the run than in the later stages (see "The mathematics of Cookie Clicker"), leading to a gross underestimate of the time remaining.

    Accordingly I decided to try and improve the formula.

    Generating a precise equation for the time t at which B and R become equal leads to a horrendous 4th-degree equation in t, which I don't think I am capable of solving. However, if we make the simplifying assumption that the rate of change of B will remain constant at the present rate, it leads to a manageable 2nd-degree equation.

    Here is my revised formula, for anyone who is interested:

    t = (-b+sqrt(b^2-4ac))/(2*a)


    where
    a = P^2/D
    b = (B-1+C/D)P
    c = BC-PT

    and D = 3B^2*Cp

    The quantities C, Cp, P, T and B are the same as in my earlier formula.

    Using this formula gives a value of t = 324 hours remaining for my current run, which is now 72 hours old. I think this is a somewhat more realistic estimate than what's given by my earlier formula, which gives only 13.8 hours remaining. (The duration of the last run completed was 544 hours.)

    In case you people are wondering, yes I do have a life, but I also have a fair bit of free time. :)
    Post edited by bob_32_116 on
  • JezJez Posts: 64Member ✭✭
    edited February 20

    I'm starting to think I shall have to do "dummy runs" - runs that only last a few seconds before ascending again - if I ever want to get the 100 ascension achievement. I am only on run 20, so in the normal course of events it will take months before I reach 100 ascensions, unless I hasten the process.

    Has anyone else done this? Ascending with no prestige give no increase in production, but as far as I can see it does not cost anything either, except for the time taken to ascend and reincarnate repeatedly, time during which no production can take place. It seems slightly ridiculous that I may at some point find myself doing 80 dummy runs, simply to get that particular achievement. It will also quickly become tiresome.

    Yes, I've done that. I did it one day some months ago until I noticed, as per the tutorial above, that it was having no effect. Most frustrating. At present I should hit 100 Dec on Tuesday evening and following that I plan to do a few short runs, gaining one prestige each time, to try to close the gap to the 100 Ascension achievement. It won't be quick as each of my prestige now costs around 15 Oct - I've waited far too long for this strategy to be economical in terms of time - but it's better than nothing.
  • bob_32_116bob_32_116 Posts: 436Member ✭✭✭
    Jez said:

    I'm starting to think I shall have to do "dummy runs" - runs that only last a few seconds before ascending again - if I ever want to get the 100 ascension achievement. I am only on run 20, so in the normal course of events it will take months before I reach 100 ascensions, unless I hasten the process.

    Has anyone else done this? Ascending with no prestige give no increase in production, but as far as I can see it does not cost anything either, except for the time taken to ascend and reincarnate repeatedly, time during which no production can take place. It seems slightly ridiculous that I may at some point find myself doing 80 dummy runs, simply to get that particular achievement. It will also quickly become tiresome.

    Yes, I've done that. I did it one day some months ago until I noticed, as per the tutorial above, that it was having no effect. Most frustrating. At present I should hit 100 Dec on Tuesday evening and following that I plan to do a few short runs, gaining one prestige each time, to try to close the gap to the 100 Ascension achievement. It won't be quick as each of my prestige now costs around 15 Oct - I've waited far too long for this strategy to be economical in terms of time - but it's better than nothing.
    This leads to the interesting question of when is the best time to do your dummy runs and get to 100 ascensions. A bit of calculus says that the number of cookies required to get one extra prestige point is proportional to C^(2/3) where C is the current total cookies. However, considering only the effects of prestige and ignoring the boost from achievements and heavenly upgrades, the production is proportional to C^(1/3). Dividing one by the other gives the result that the time for each dummy run is proportional to C^(1/3).

    In other words, the longer you leave it, the longer each dummy run takes... but also, the fewer of them you need to do, so it's not immediately clear when the best time is. After 20 ascensions, 80 dummy runs are required to get the achievement. After 60 ascsensions, only 40 are required. Will each of the later ones take twice as long as each of the earlier ones? That depends on how many cookies you expect to have after 60 ascensions. As they say in the classics, I'LL HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IT.
  • bob_32_116bob_32_116 Posts: 436Member ✭✭✭
    edited February 20
    Now this is interesting.

    Pursuant to the above post, I calculated the quantity C^(1/3)/P * (100-A) for each of my runs already completed, where

    C = total cookies
    P = final CpS
    A = no. of ascensions

    This should give an estimate of the time it would take to do all the dummy runs to reach the 100-ascension achievement (there is an additional constant involved, but this does not matter for the purposes of comparing values between runs).

    This quantity shows a steady decrease up to and including Run 16, after which it slowly increased again, suggesting that the end of run 16 would have been the best time.

    The increase seem to be levelling out between runs 19 and 20, so I'm going to see what happens with the next couple of runs. It may go down again. If there seems to be a continued upward trend, then I'll do the runs straight away, otherwise I'll wait.

    I think the reason for the initial decrease was because in the early runs I was getting building upgrades and kittens at each run that I had not acquired on earlier runs. Now that I am in the end-game that's no longer the case, so I expect the dummy run time to keep increasing - but let's see what happens.

    Of course eventually if I waited until I had nearly 100 runs, there would be only a few dummy runs to do, so the time must decrease sharply at the end. Waiting makes no sense though, as you have to do all those "normal" non-dummy runs, without the benefit from the achievement.
    Post edited by bob_32_116 on
  • JezJez Posts: 64Member ✭✭
    For information purposes:

    Just hit the 100Dec. Now ascended twice since, each one taking c.7min.
  • bob_32_116bob_32_116 Posts: 436Member ✭✭✭
    Jez said:

    For information purposes:

    Just hit the 100Dec. Now ascended twice since, each one taking c.7min.

    If my theory is correct, and the time is proportional to the cube root of total cookies, then since I will have about 2.7 dec at the end of my current run, a dummy run should take just over two minutes. Over 300 hours to go in the present run, so it will be some time before I can verify that conjecture.

  • bob_32_116bob_32_116 Posts: 436Member ✭✭✭
    edited February 22
    A graph of time required to do dummy runs and reach 100 ascensions, for an idealised game in which the number of cookies increases by the same factor on each run, and production depends only on prestige level (i.e. we are referring to the endgame):



    The numbers are not important, only the shape of the graph. As you can see, if you are going to do the dummy runs at all, the earlier the better.

    The cookie multiplier per run was set at the rather low value of 1.2, to make the graph clearer. the larger this multiplier, the closer the peak of the graph is to 100.

    Is the time spent doing dummy runs worth it? You bet it is. At my current stage of the game, each new achievement boosts overall production by 2.3%. In other words, getting that achievement should shorten each subsequent run by about 2.3%, which currently equates to 10 hours or more.
    Post edited by bob_32_116 on
  • JezJez Posts: 64Member ✭✭
    Just out of interest, and sorry if this has already been revealed multiple times, but did anybody else know that you can carry the effects of a Golden Cookie into the next ascension? For example, if you get a Frenzy and immediately ascend, then the next time you reincarnate you go straight into your Frenzy from where you left off: x7 for 77sec. I've managed to hit my ascension goal of c.15 Oct within a minute or so a few times today with that little trick.

    Fifteen thousand hours and still learning...
  • adam_antichristadam_antichrist Posts: 299Member ✭✭✭
    Never knew that.
    Jez said:

    Just out of interest, and sorry if this has already been revealed multiple times, but did anybody else know that you can carry the effects of a Golden Cookie into the next ascension? For example, if you get a Frenzy and immediately ascend, then the next time you reincarnate you go straight into your Frenzy from where you left off: x7 for 77sec. I've managed to hit my ascension goal of c.15 Oct within a minute or so a few times today with that little trick.

    Fifteen thousand hours and still learning...

    Never knew that.


  • DatreborDatrebor Posts: 11Member ✭✭
    I'm getting ready to ascend for the first time. I have 4.585 quintillion with a legacy of 228. By the time I get up I might be at 5 quintillion and a legacy of 230.
  • JezJez Posts: 64Member ✭✭
    You'll be in the thousands this time tomorow and you'll be wondering why you waited so long. ;-)
  • bob_32_116bob_32_116 Posts: 436Member ✭✭✭
    Jez said:

    You'll be in the thousands this time tomorow and you'll be wondering why you waited so long. ;-)

    Ah the wisdom of hindsight. I waited until 400+ for the first ascension, unaware of the benefits that Permanent Upgrade slot 1, with x-illion Finger upgrade installed, would bring. If I were to start again, I'd ascend as soon as I got to 100 prestige points so I could get that heavenly upgrade.
  • JezJez Posts: 64Member ✭✭
    I ascended first time at about ten billion. I really had no idea what I was doing so consequetly I earned no HC at all. That was in a previous incarnation of the game with no Permanent Upgrades or anything like that. I also hadn't even bothered to discover the Wikia or Reddits either. The wisdom of hindsight indeed.
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